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External validation of cerebral aneurysm rupture probability model with data from two patient cohorts.

A new interesting article has been published in Acta Neurochir (Wien). 2018 Dec;160(12):2425-2434. doi: 10.1007/s00701-018-3712-8. Epub 2018 Oct 30. and titled:

External validation of cerebral aneurysm rupture probability model with data from two patient cohorts.

Authors of this article are:

Detmer FJ, Fajardo-Jiménez D, Mut F, Juchler N, Hirsch S, Pereira VM, Bijlenga P, Cebral JR.

A summary of the article is shown below:

BACKGROUND: For a treatment decision of unruptured cerebral aneurysms, physicians and patients need to weigh the risk of treatment against the risk of hemorrhagic stroke caused by aneurysm rupture. The aim of this study was to externally evaluate a recently developed statistical aneurysm rupture probability model, which could potentially support such treatment decisions.METHODS: Segmented image data and patient information obtained from two patient cohorts including 203 patients with 249 aneurysms were used for patient-specific computational fluid dynamics simulations and subsequent evaluation of the statistical model in terms of accuracy, discrimination, and goodness of fit. The model’s performance was further compared to a similarity-based approach for rupture assessment by identifying aneurysms in the training cohort that were similar in terms of hemodynamics and shape compared to a given aneurysm from the external cohorts.RESULTS: When applied to the external data, the model achieved a good discrimination and goodness of fit (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve AUC = 0.82), which was only slightly reduced compared to the optimism-corrected AUC in the training population (AUC = 0.84). The accuracy metrics indicated a small decrease in accuracy compared to the training data (misclassification error of 0.24 vs. 0.21). The model’s prediction accuracy was improved when combined with the similarity approach (misclassification error of 0.14).CONCLUSIONS: The model’s performance measures indicated a good generalizability for data acquired at different clinical institutions. Combining the model-based and similarity-based approach could further improve the assessment and interpretation of new cases, demonstrating its potential use for clinical risk assessment.

Check out the article’s website on Pubmed for more information:



This article is a good source of information and a good way to become familiar with topics such as:

Cerebral aneurysm;Hemodynamics;Prediction;Risk factors;Rupture;Shape

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